Bougainville has voted to become a new country, but the journey to independence
is not yet over
Anna Powles,
Massey University
The Autonomous Region of Bougainville, a chain of islands that lie 959 kilometres
northwest of Papua New Guinea’s capital, Port Moresby, has voted unequivocally for
independence.
The referendum saw 85% voter turnout during three weeks of voting, with
97.7% of voters choosing independence from Papua New Guinea over the second
option, which was remaining, but with greater autonomy from PNG. As the Bougainville
Referendum Commission stated, the numbers told an important story, reflecting the
support for independence across genders and age groups.
It’s a momentous event, not only because it could a new country, but also because
the referendum marks an important part of a
peace agreement signed almost 20 years ago. The 2001
Bougainville Peace Agreement ended the
deeply divisive nine year conflict (1988-1997) that lead to the
deaths of approximately 20,000 people, or about 10% of Bougainville’s population.
The referendum, however, is non-binding. The ultimate outcome will be determined
by a vote in Papua New Guinea’s National Parliament following negotiations between
the Papua New Guinean government and the Autonomous Bougainville Government.
But as former President James Tanis said to me hours after the result was announced:
we survived the war, ended the war, delivered a successful referendum, what else
can now stop us from becoming a successful independent nation?
China’s interest in Bougainville
For the broader region, an independent Bougainville has a number of implications.
Firstly, it sends a strong signal for other self-determination movements across
the Pacific, including in New Caledonia which will hold a second referendum for
independence in 2020.
There are also geopolitical implications. The referendum has taken place during
a period of heightened strategic anxiety among the Pacific’s so-called traditional
partners – Australia, New Zealand and the United States, as well as the United Kingdom,
France and Japan.
There have long been concerns China will seek to curry influence with an independent
Bougainville. As one Bougainvillean leader informed me, Chinese efforts to build
relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the past few
years.
Beijing’s interest in Bougainville is two-fold: first, it is seeking to shore up
diplomatic support in the Pacific Islands region, thereby reducing support for Taiwan
which lost a further two Pacific allies this year. And second, to access to resources,
namely fisheries and extractive minerals.
Although it will be tempting for many in Canberra, Washington and Wellington to
view an independent Bougainville through the current strategic prism – adhering
to narratives about debt-trap diplomacy – doing so undermines the importance of
local dynamics and the resilience of Bougainville people.
An independent Bougainville navigating a more disordered and disruptive international
environment will need nuanced grounded advice, rather than speculation.
The road ahead for Bougainville will be challenging and it will need its friends
– particularly New Zealand and Australia.
The much vaunted respective “Pacific Reset” and “Pacific
Step Up” policies provide entry points for the kind of genuine engagement
and support that Bougainville will require in the coming years.
Celebration with cautious anticipation
Following the result’s announcement, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape
said his government had heard the voice of Bougainvilleans, and the two governments
must now
develop a road map that leads to lasting political settlement.
And Bougainville Referendum Commission chairman Bertie Ahern urged all sides to
recognise the result and said the vote was about “your peace, your history, and
your future” and reflected “the power of the pen over weapons”. Acknowledging the
result is non-binding, Ahern said:
the referendum is one part of that ongoing journey.
And here lies the challenge. The post-referendum period was always going to be one
of celebration, cautious anticipation and the management of expectations.
As one of Bougainville’s formidable women leaders told me, there are concerns about
security in the post-referendum period as expectation turns to frustration if there
are perceived delays in determining Bougainville’s future political status.
What’s more, the negotiations are likely to take a long time, since there’s no deadline
they’re required to meet.
There are, however, critical milestones that still need to be hit first. This includes
the Autonomous Bougainville Government elections, the first elections following
the referendum, so will likely see intensified politicking as politicians jockey
for a potential role in building an independent Bougainvillean state.
The Papua New Guinea’s national elections are also scheduled for 2022. The risk
in both cases is that Bougainville’s future becomes a political pawn.
An independent Bougainville will face significant challenges and diverse choices.
Not least of which is Bougainville’s economic security and the choices that will
need to be made about the Panguna Mine, the gold and copper mine at the heart of
much of the conflict, and fisheries, once the new nation’s 200-mile Exclusive Economic
Zone is created.
A young nation built on a past mired by the extremes of resource nationalism, Bougainville
has difficult decisions to make about how it secures its economic self-reliance.
Anna Powles,
Senior Lecturer in Security Studies,
Massey University
This article is republished from The Conversation
under a Creative Commons license. Read the
original article.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this commentary are author's personal
observations.